China's Energy Strategy : The Impact on Bejing's Maritime by Collins, Gabriel B.; Erickson, Andew S.; Goldstein, Lyle J,;

By Collins, Gabriel B.; Erickson, Andew S.; Goldstein, Lyle J,; Murray, William S.

Quite a few viewpoints is accessible during this well timed research of China's economic system and the long run form of Beijing's power intake. The authors, all famous specialists within the fields of economics, international relations, strength, and security, ponder an remarkable diversity of affects and components to prevent the restrictions of the topic myopically or with political bias. They finish that whereas power lack of confidence might finally result in an fingers race at sea or perhaps a naval clash that neither part wishes, there's plentiful room for Sino-
American power discussion and cooperation within the maritime area.

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Many people think that China’s growth over the past twenty-five years has been export-led, as Japan’s or South Korea’s was at the corresponding stage of development. That was not generally the case because China did not run systemic trade surpluses for most of the reform period. The past two years have been glaringly exceptional in this regard because China is now running a very large current account surplus amounting to over 8 percent of GDP as of June 2006, and hence growth is partly export-led.

And Chinese navies, except intermittently at relatively high levels, often in connection with ship visits, has fed mutual suspicion. S. Navy for the defense of China’s energy trade and the security of its choke points. It will add to Chinese reluctance to contemplate cooperation and burden-sharing with the United States in support of freedom of navigation and the security of the world’s energy trade. This in turn will increase the incentives for China to acquire independent naval power projection capabilities with which to defend its supply lines on its own.

Indd 30 3/27/08 10:18:03 AM Scen arios for the Chi n ese E con omy 31 explain some of it away by “conceding” that a portion of what has shown up as investment is in fact consumption, such as the purchase of cars by firms (investment) that are in reality for personal use of managers (consumption). While Beijing is unlikely to refute the argument that a significant amount of “investment” is actually government spending, senior officials are probably not annoyed with this line as long as it helps palliate foreign anxieties about overinvestment.

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